Both parties in Texas like '08 chances

By R.G. RATCLIFFE
Copyright 2007 Houston Chronicle Austin Bureau

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AUSTIN — With polls showing voter dissatisfaction in Texas mirroring a national mood, state Democrats believe they will have the "wind" to their backs for the first time in a dozen years in the 2008 elections.

But Republicans say that is a pipe dream that will quickly evaporate through money and organization once the GOP rallies behind a presidential nominee.

This Wednesday is the deadline for candidates to file in the two major party primaries, setting the stage for the next 11 months of political battle. The primary elections are March 4, with the general election on Nov. 4.

And while the presidential election will garner most of the attention nationally, the focus of this year's elections in Texas will be on the U.S. Senate race, a battle for power in the Legislature and a struggle by the major political parties for dominance in Dallas and Harris counties.

Polls released by Democrats and publicly produced polls by organizations such as SurveyUSA and the Texas Lyceum have shown a continuing voter unrest in the state this year. The Lyceum poll in June found 62 percent of the state's voters believe the nation is on the wrong track.

Both parties point to the presidential race as a key factor in how down-ballot candidates fare next fall.

With the candidate filing deadlines approaching this week, Texas Democrats are liking their chances for victory, pointing to a Republican malaise over the presidential frontrunners, the lack of a Bush on the ballot and a general dissatisfaction with the GOP leadership.

State Republican leaders insist they still have the majority of voters in Texas as well as the money and organization to turn them out, even in a year when the political landscape is giving an edge to Democrats nationally.

But some in the GOP see the potential for a party disaster in 2008, including the possibility that the state could go Democratic in a presidential race for the first time since 1976.

''The vaunted Republican organization, which was really strong in the 1990s, has really weakened. The grassroots organization, for all practical purposes, is a remnant of what it once was," said former Texas GOP Chairman Tom Pauken. ''It (the election) is not something to be taken for granted, and the Democrats in the right circumstances could take Texas."

The last time Texas Democrats won a statewide office was in 1994, and their grip on down-ballot offices has eroded ever since. State Party Chairman Boyd Richie is not predicting a political comeback for his party this year, but he said it is the first time in years that the Republicans haven't held all the political advantages.


No Bush on the ballot
Richie said there are realistic opportunities to create an upset in the Senate race to defeat incumbent Republican John Cornyn. He also said the party is shooting to pick up five to six Texas House seats to help moderate Republicans oust House Speaker Tom Craddick. And Richie predicted major Democratic gains in Harris County.

Richie said one reason the tide has turned is this will be the first election since 1980 when a member of the Bush family has not been on the ballot or in state or federal office to help inspire Republican voters. But he said voters now are tired of state and national Republican leadership on the war in Iraq, health care, rising college tuition and increased utility costs.

Richie said there also is a difference in presidential politics that can affect voter turnout this year. "Democrats are excited and would really rally around any of our frontrunners, where it seems to be the Republicans really don't like any of their candidates," Richie said.

But Texas remains a state that has gone Democratic in a presidential election just once in the past 40 years: Jimmy Carter's win in 1976. The voter numbers also still seem to favor Republicans.

A record 2.8 million people voted Democratic in the 2004 presidential election, an increase of almost 400,000 voters over the 2000 presidential election. But President Bush still carried the state in 2004 by a margin